Biotech Event Vol

What this is: the binary-event calendar from Biotech Catalysts, but priced. For each upcoming FDA decision or trial readout, we price the at-the-money straddle to the expiry that brackets the event.

Implied move = that straddle ÷ the stock price — how big a move the options market is pricing for the binary. Baseline = the stock's own realized-vol move over the same window (what it'd do on ordinary vol, no event).

Event premium = implied ÷ baseline. Unlike an investor day, a real biotech binary is expected to move big — so the read is relative: we rank each event's premium against the whole biotech cohort. Options light = the market is loading the binary the least (cheap optionality if you believe it's make-or-break); fully loaded = richly priced.

Caveat: mega-cap pharma (a single trial isn't material) will always look "light"; the signal is sharpest on single-asset small-caps. Dates are estimates from public filings; not advice.